The housing market continues to dominate conversations in 2025, with rising home prices, fluctuating mortgage rates, and endless debates about a possible crash. Let’s break down the latest trends and predictions, explore local market data, and address common misconceptions about the state of real estate in the U.S.

National Home Prices: Still Rising Despite Speculation

In October 2025, U.S. median home prices increased by 5.1% compared to the same time last year. For those hoping for a housing crash, this might be unwelcome news. But the data doesn’t lie—home prices are climbing nationally, fueled by low inventory and strong demand.

Critics argue that national data doesn’t capture local variations. So, let’s dive deeper into specific markets to explore the truth behind the crash predictions.

Florida Housing Market: Are Homes Affordable?

Florida has been a hotbed for speculation about falling home prices. But here’s the reality:

• Tampa: Home prices are down 2.3% from their 2022 peak but are only 0.4% lower than last year.
• Miami: Prices have risen 2.3% year-over-year, contradicting claims of a crash.

The data shows stabilization rather than a freefall. Yet, affordability remains a pressing question for Floridians. Are quality homes available at reasonable prices? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

Hot Markets: Northeast and California Stand Out

The Northeast and California markets remain resilient. Let’s look at key cities:

• New York City: Prices rose 7% in the last year, nearing record highs.
• Los Angeles: Prices increased by 4.6%, with little sign of a downturn.
• San Francisco: While home prices fell 10% from their peak, they’re trending upward again, with a 1.4% year-over-year increase.

Understanding the “Bubble” Debate

Yes, the housing market is in a bubble. But does that mean prices must crash? History suggests otherwise. Home prices tend to increase over time due to inflation, demand, and limited supply. For example:

• The median home price in 1990 was $120,000.
• Today, it exceeds $400,000.

This long-term growth underscores why waiting for a crash may not be the best strategy.

Mortgage Rates and Market Predictions for 2025

Mortgage rates remain high, with the 30-year fixed hovering around 6.84%. While borrowers hope for relief, rates are unlikely to drop significantly in the near term.

Predictions for 2025:

• Goldman Sachs: Prices will rise 4.4%.
• Moody’s: A modest increase of 0.3%.
• Consensus: Expect a 2.6% increase in home prices, driven by tight inventory and steady demand.

Low Inventory: The Real Problem

Housing inventory remains a critical factor. With only 1.8 million homes on the market—well below the normal 2.25 million—supply is insufficient to meet demand. Until inventory levels increase, dramatic price drops are unlikely.